The limits of mechanism: why receptor data will not tell you who responds
A catalogue of open questions, with an assessment of how likely each is to be resolved.
TheCompound Journal
Reporting on incretins, compounding & the peptide supply chain
Incretin science
A tour of what happens in the thirty seconds after binding, and why it matters at week thirty.
There is a version of incretin pharmacology in which the receptor is a switch and the drug is a key, and the only variable worth discussing is how much key you use. It is a convenient model and it fails almost immediately. The GLP-1 receptor couples to more than one intracellular pathway; different agonists stabilise different receptor conformations and therefore weight those pathways differently; the receptor is expressed in the pancreas, the stomach, the heart, the kidney and several nuclei of the brainstem and hypothalamus, and its density and coupling differ in each. A drug is not a dose. It is a pattern of signalling across tissues.
The GLP-1 receptor belongs to class B of the G-protein-coupled receptor superfamily — the secretin-like receptors — which is a structural classification with practical consequences. Class B receptors have a large extracellular domain that captures the C-terminal portion of a peptide ligand first, in what is usually described as a two-domain binding model: the extracellular domain provides affinity, and the N-terminal residues of the peptide then insert into the transmembrane bundle to provide activation.
That architecture is why these receptors are difficult small-molecule targets and why, for two decades, every marketed agonist was a peptide. It is also why the orally available non-peptide agonists now in late-stage development are genuinely notable pharmacology rather than a formulation trick: they bind a site that a peptide does not occupy in the same way, and they activate the receptor through a partially distinct mechanism.1
The consequence for a reader trying to compare molecules is that structural class predicts a great deal about route, durability and formulation, and rather less about efficacy.
When the GLP-1 receptor is activated it can couple to Gαs, raising cyclic AMP, and it can recruit beta-arrestin, which contributes to receptor internalisation and desensitisation. An agonist that favours the first over the second is described as G-protein-biased. The therapeutic argument for bias is that sustained cAMP signalling without proportionate internalisation should produce a more durable effect at the same occupancy.
The evidence for that argument is real but narrower than its popularity suggests. Bias is measured in transfected cell systems at receptor densities that bear no relationship to a beta cell or a vagal afferent, and the translation from a bias factor in vitro to a clinical difference in vivo has been demonstrated convincingly for very few ligands.2 The Journal’s position is that bias is a legitimate and probably important variable, that it is one of several plausible explanations for the differences observed between molecules, and that anybody presenting it as the explanation is ahead of the data.
A molecule can be more potent and less efficacious than another. The trade reports neither number.
On affinity, potency and efficacyThree quantities are routinely conflated in discussions of this class. Affinity is how tightly a ligand binds, usually reported as a dissociation constant. Potency is the concentration producing half-maximal response, reported as an EC50. Efficacy is the maximal response achievable, reported relative to a reference agonist. A molecule can be more potent and less efficacious than another, and a molecule can bind a second receptor with high affinity and produce almost no response there.
Selectivity is the ratio of activities across receptors, and it is where the current pipeline diverges most sharply. Reported GIP-to-GLP-1 activity ratios for dual agonists vary by more than an order of magnitude between molecules; glucagon receptor arms in triple agonists vary similarly. Those ratios are properties of the sequence and they are not adjustable by dose. Two molecules with different ratios are different drugs at every dose, which is the reason head-to-head trials cannot be replaced by cross-trial comparison.3
| Programme | Molecule | Dose | Non-response |
|---|---|---|---|
| STEP 1 | Semaglutide | 2.4 mg weekly | 13.9% |
| STEP 2 | Semaglutide | 2.4 mg weekly | ≈18% |
| SURMOUNT-1 | Tirzepatide | 15 mg weekly | ≈9% |
| SURMOUNT-1 | Tirzepatide | 5 mg weekly | ≈15% |
| Figures are approximate, drawn from published responder analyses; definitions of non-response differ slightly between programmes. | |||
Three engineering strategies account for essentially every long-acting agonist on the market. The first is substitution at the DPP-4 cleavage site: replacing the alanine at position 8 with a residue the enzyme cannot process removes the fastest route of degradation. The second is acylation with a fatty-acid chain, which promotes reversible binding to serum albumin; albumin-bound drug is protected from renal filtration and enzymatic attack, and dissociates slowly to provide a circulating depot. The third is fusion to a large carrier — an immunoglobulin Fc fragment, for instance — which raises the hydrodynamic radius above the glomerular filtration threshold.
Semaglutide uses the first two, with a C18 diacid linked through a spacer. Liraglutide uses a shorter C16 chain and achieves roughly thirteen hours rather than seven days, which is a useful demonstration of how much the chain contributes. Dulaglutide takes the fusion route. The strategies are not interchangeable and they produce different distribution and clearance behaviour, not merely different durations.4
An orally bioavailable small molecule that activates a class B GPCR was, for a long time, considered close to impossible. The current crop of non-peptide GLP-1 receptor agonists achieves it by binding a site that overlaps only partially with the peptide binding pocket, stabilising an active conformation without the two-domain capture mechanism.
Pharmacologically this matters for three reasons. Absorption does not depend on a permeation enhancer, so bioavailability is far less variable and far less dependent on fasting state than oral semaglutide’s. Elimination is hepatic rather than largely renal and proteolytic, which changes the interaction profile. And potency at the receptor is achieved without a fatty-acid albumin depot, so the concentration-time profile looks like a conventional small molecule rather than a peptide. None of this predicts efficacy; all of it predicts a different practical drug.
Agonist: a ligand that binds a receptor and produces a response. Full agonist: one producing the maximal response the system permits. Partial agonist: one producing less than maximal response even at full occupancy. Analogue: a molecule structurally derived from a natural ligand. Mimetic: a molecule reproducing a natural ligand’s effect without structural derivation.
Orthosteric site: the binding site the natural ligand occupies. Allosteric site: a distinct site whose occupancy modulates activity at the orthosteric one. Biased agonism: preferential activation of one downstream pathway over another. Tachyphylaxis: diminishing response to repeated administration. Steady state: the condition in which the rate of drug entering the body equals the rate leaving it.
Precision here is not pedantry. Several of the arguments this publication receives by post turn out, on inspection, to be disagreements about which of these words the writer meant.
What remains genuinely open is the variance. Mean effects in this class are among the best-characterised in modern pharmacology, and individual response remains unpredictable in a way that no receptor-level account currently explains. Until that changes, the most defensible thing anybody can say about an individual starting treatment is that the average is well known and their own result is not.
A catalogue of open questions, with an assessment of how likely each is to be resolved.
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Higher doses of these molecules have been studied. In general they produced modest additional efficacy and disproportionate additional symptom burden, which is why the…