The incidence tables, read line by line
Trial adverse-event tables count episodes reported to a study nurse. They are the best data we have and they systematically under-record the mundane.
TheCompound Journal
Reporting on incretins, compounding & the peptide supply chain
Titration
Every major phase 3 protocol in this class allowed escalation to be delayed for tolerability. Almost no product label explains the mechanics of doing so.
Read the protocols rather than the labels and a consistent provision appears: escalation may be delayed if the participant is not tolerating the current dose. STEP, SURMOUNT and SURPASS all contained versions of it, and the trial results everybody quotes were produced by populations exercising it. The efficacy figures in circulation are therefore not the product of a rigid ladder. They are the product of a flexible one, applied by trial staff with weekly contact and a strong incentive to keep participants enrolled. The label reports the ladder and drops the flexibility, which inverts the emphasis of the evidence.
The pivotal protocols in this class permitted escalation to be delayed. In the semaglutide obesity programme, participants unable to tolerate a dose increase could remain at the previous dose and attempt escalation later; the tirzepatide programme contained comparable provisions, with defined windows and a limit on how long a participant could remain below target before being counted as not having reached it.
This matters for how the efficacy figures should be read. The mean weight reductions quoted from STEP and SURMOUNT were produced by populations in which a meaningful minority spent time below their assigned target dose. The trials therefore already contain the effect of flexible titration, and the flexible approach is not a departure from the evidence but part of how the evidence was generated.
What the labels carry forward is the ladder. What they largely omit is the permission. A prescriber who reads only the label sees a fixed calendar; a prescriber who reads the trial documentation sees a calendar with a documented escape valve. The Journal has raised this with two regulatory affairs specialists, both of whom regarded it as a known and unglamorous gap in how trial conduct is translated into prescribing information.1
The evidence on deviating from four-week steps is observational and one-sided. Slower escalation — five, six or eight weeks per rung — is reported by clinicians to reduce early discontinuation, is consistent with the tachyphylaxis data, and has never been randomised against the standard interval in a trial of adequate size. Faster escalation has no supporting rationale we can identify and a clear kinetic argument against it.
What can be said with confidence is that the cost of going slower is bounded and calculable: a longer time to target exposure, and therefore a later arrival at the efficacy plateau. Because the plateau itself sits at sixty weeks or beyond, adding four or eight weeks to the escalation phase is a small fraction of the treatment course. The cost of going faster is a higher probability of discontinuation, and discontinuation costs the entire effect.
That asymmetry is the strongest thing the Journal is willing to say on the subject. It is an argument from consequence rather than from trial data, and we flag it as such rather than dressing it as a finding.2
The arithmetic of a step is only as good as the number it starts from, and in this market that number is often unmeasured.
On research-grade material and dose certaintyHolding works because two of the three things a person notices attenuate on their own. Gastric emptying delay, measured by scintigraphy and by breath test, is largest early in exposure at a given dose and diminishes over subsequent weeks while the drug is continued unchanged. Nausea incidence in the trials follows a comparable trajectory: it peaks in the weeks following each escalation and declines toward a lower background.
The third thing — reduced appetite and early satiety — attenuates considerably less, which is the whole reason holding is worth doing rather than simply reducing. A held dose loses much of its unwanted effect and keeps most of its wanted one.
The magnitude of this adaptation is not enormous and it is not universal. Some proportion of people find that symptoms at a given dose do not settle at all over eight or twelve weeks, and for them the dose is simply above their ceiling. Distinguishing a slow adapter from a person at their limit cannot be done in advance, which means holding is also a diagnostic manoeuvre: it converts an unanswerable question about tolerance into an answerable question about time.3
| Programme | Molecule | Dose | Duration | Mean weight change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STEP 1 | Semaglutide | 2.4 mg weekly | 68 weeks | −14.9% |
| STEP 1 | Placebo | — | 68 weeks | −2.4% |
| STEP 5 | Semaglutide | 2.4 mg weekly | 104 weeks | −15.2% |
| SURMOUNT-1 | Tirzepatide | 5 mg weekly | 72 weeks | −15.0% |
| SURMOUNT-1 | Tirzepatide | 10 mg weekly | 72 weeks | −19.5% |
| SURMOUNT-1 | Tirzepatide | 15 mg weekly | 72 weeks | −20.9% |
| SURMOUNT-1 | Placebo | — | 72 weeks | −3.1% |
| Treatment-policy estimand where reported. Figures are means from the primary publications and are not comparable across programmes, which differed in population, duration and analysis. | ||||
The practice that has emerged across this class, without ever being formally codified, runs roughly as follows. Start at the initiation dose. Escalate when the current dose is comfortable enough that a person is eating normally, keeping fluids down, and not organising their week around symptoms. Do not escalate in the week of a symptom flare. If a rung is intolerable, step back to the previous one and try again later. If a rung is producing an adequate result, consider stopping there.
Every clinician we spoke to described something within a small variation of that, and none of them could point to a trial of it. It is a reasonable synthesis of the pharmacokinetics, the tachyphylaxis data and a great deal of accumulated observation.
The Journal has a specific position on this. The absence of randomised support for tolerability-led escalation is a real gap and should be closed, but its absence is not a reason to prefer the printed calendar, which has no randomised support either. Between two unrandomised schedules, the one that responds to information about the individual is the better bet. We say that as an editorial judgement rather than as a report of evidence.
Dose reduction in this class carries a stigma that the pharmacology does not justify. Because the ceiling is set by tolerability and tolerability varies severalfold between people, the only way to find an individual ceiling is to move until it is reached and then move back. A reduction is the second half of that measurement.
There is a practical detail worth stating. Reduction takes effect on the same kinetics as escalation, which means the relief is not immediate: a person dropping from 15 mg to 10 mg is still carrying substantial exposure from the higher dose for a fortnight, and concluding after five days that the reduction has not helped is premature.
There is also an arithmetic trap for vial users. Halving a dose halves exposure at steady state, but the transition takes three to four weeks, and during that transition the person is at neither dose. Anybody adjusting downward to escape a symptom should expect the answer to arrive on a three-week timescale, not a three-day one.
If there is a single practical conclusion here it is that the ladder is a default and the person is the variable. The trials that produced the figures everyone quotes were run on populations permitted to hold, delay and step back, and reading their results as an endorsement of a rigid calendar inverts what actually happened. We will keep making that point until the labels catch up with the protocols.
Selected from correspondence received on this article. Writers are identified by initial, surname and city, verified before printing. Replies are from the desk that filed the piece or from the standards editor. Write to letters@compoundjournal.com.
I had a nine-week gap last year because my supplier stopped answering messages. Nobody in any clinical setting I dealt with treated that as a pharmacological event. Your framing of supply interruption as a dosing decision is the first time I have seen it written down.
— Q. Delacroix, Montréal, QC
A small thing. You give the semaglutide diabetes ladder as ending at 2.0 mg and the weight ladder at 2.4 mg, without explaining why the same molecule has two ceilings for two indications. It looks arbitrary and I suspect it is not.
— P. Sandoval, Albuquerque, NM
It is not arbitrary — the two maxima come from separate dose-selection programmes with different primary endpoints, and 2.0 mg was established against 1.0 mg in a dedicated glycaemic comparison. We have added a clause. The underlying point, that indication shapes the ladder as much as the molecule does, is worth more space than we gave it.
The claim that nobody has randomised escalation intervals is too strong. There are protocol amendments in several programmes that effectively created slower-titration cohorts, and some of those have been analysed post hoc.
— T. Aoyama, Nagoya
Post-hoc comparison of cohorts created by amendment is not randomisation, and treating it as such is exactly the elision we were objecting to. We accept that such analyses exist and are informative; we maintain that they cannot settle the question, and the file now says so in those terms.
You describe the plateau as an energy-balance event and dismiss receptor desensitisation. Is there not a third possibility — that adherence quietly falls off at around a year and the plateau is partly a behavioural artefact of the trial rather than a physiological one?
— S. Weatherall, Newcastle, NSW
There is, and it is a better objection than the desensitisation argument. Adherence does decline over the second year of the long programmes, and the treatment-policy analyses absorb that decline into the mean. We should have said that the plateau is very likely a composite of energy balance and falling adherence, in proportions the published analyses do not separate cleanly.
As a prescribing pharmacist I would add one thing about re-titration. The commonest problem I see is not the resumption dose. It is that the patient has a pen left over at the old strength and uses it because it is in the fridge and it cost money. The clinical decision and the economic decision are not the same decision.
— T. Blakemore, Hull
Well put, and we had not written it down. The cost of discarding partially used material is a real input into dosing behaviour in a market where much of the spend is out of pocket, and it deserves treatment in The Ledger rather than a sentence here.
Trial adverse-event tables count episodes reported to a study nurse. They are the best data we have and they systematically under-record the mundane.
What the trials measured was continuation against withdrawal. What patients want to know is continuation at a lower dose, and that study has largely not been done.
Where the curve flattens, what flattens with it, and what does not.
The physiology of regain was described a decade before these drugs, and it explains the trajectory without invoking anything specific to them.
We set out the questions that distinguish a symptom to manage from a dose to change.
The receptor populations that produce satiety and the ones that produce nausea overlap substantially. That is why the ceiling of this drug class is where it is, and it is…